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Midway musings – Part 3: The title contenders

10 Aug 2011(Wed)

(Continued from last week.)


4) Reysol remain the real deal

The inherent fallacy in penning multi-part articles for (essentially) a weekly column is, of course, the risk you end up running of speaking after the act. Having devoted a thousand or so words last time to the championship challenge of ‘leaders’ Yokohama F Marinos, Kazushi Kimura’s side were promptly removed from the summit with a 2-0 defeat at Kashiwa Reysol on Saturday – a meeting of the top two tragically overshadowed by the sudden death of former Marinos and Japan defender Naoki Matsuda at the tender age of 34. This result did, however, serve to conclusively underline a key theme to the J2 champions’ fortunes over the past two months: Reysol have not actually been found out after all. If not quite favourites, they still remain very much in contention for a unique title double.


Having moved seven points clear of their opponents with a hard-fought 2-0 victory in Yokohama back on 11 June, it must have been a little galling, at least, for Kashiwa fans to see this advantage turned into a two-point deficit ahead of the mid-summer rematch. But while Nelsinho Baptista had certainly led his men to an astonishingly quick start – the former result made it 22 points from a possible 27 – a glance at the rearranged fixtures calendar revealed that maintaining a similar pace throughout Japan’s more humid months was highly unrealistic in the first place. Questions were understandably asked after a 3-0 home drubbing at the hands of Jubilo Iwata, but a return of 19 points from a tricky programme of ten league fixtures since easily bettered par in a division as competitive as J1.


Reysol’s three defeats in this spell were both entertaining and qualifiable – second best to an inspired Gamba Osaka in a six-goal game of real quality; reduced to ten men for over an hour during a miserable 5-0 walloping at Gamba’s neighbours, Cerezo; and frustrated by a late penalty after fighting back from two down away to Kawasaki Frontale. But while they may not have the overwhelming bouncebackability of last year’s Nagoya Grampus, Kashiwa are incredibly good at turning one point into three, meaning that losses can be quickly offset by highly useful victories over the likes of Vegalta Sendai, Sanfrecce Hiroshima, and Kashima Antlers. 13 wins is the most of any team thus far; two draws the fewest.


Teams have fallen away in the second half of the season before – Kenta Hasegawa-era Shimizu S-Pulse used to make an art form of it – but if Reysol can hold steady throughout a sustained run of difficult fixtures until the temperature drops in mid-September, they should have few problems keeping cool over an easier run-in. Nelsinho’s squad is a fine balance of experience, youth, and all-round quality, and while a core of ten players have each clocked at least 1,130 minutes (of a possible 1,800) of league action thus far, alternatives like Akimi Barada, Masato Kudo, and Akihiro Hyodo also demonstrate the talent available in reserve.


5) Gamba surely can’t get away with it forever

We’re only in early August and the 2011 Gamba Osaka side is already into its fourth, quite distinct iteration. First, we had the team of Adriano – still the third highest scorer in J1 despite packing his bags for Qatar in June and thus only having played half the number of games (or fewer) than any other member of the top ten. Despite his obvious potency, results were nothing extraordinary as Gamba appeared over-reliant on their out-and-out number nine; an unfamiliar protagonist at Banpaku. Indeed, the Brazilian’s departure heralded this season’s finest cuvée – with Takashi Usami coming of age as the forwards combined and rotated with devastating fluidity over a glorious three-week spell that yielded 13 points and 16 goals from five league games.


Usami’s graduation to Bayern Munich meant this vintage was strictly limited edition, however, and the characteristic ‘you score three, we’ll score four’ maxim was embarrassingly reversed in, well, a 4-3 reverse at relegation fodder Ventforet Kofu. This – coupled with the concession of two equalisers in a 2-2 home draw with Jubilo Iwata – reaffirmed the chronic defensive issues and nervousness on a one-goal lead that most acknowledged were always inherent but disguised, at least superficially, by the star quality that was now lacking. But then along came Rafinha for Gamba mark four – forging an immediate understanding with Lee Keun-Ho during an extraordinary 25-minute, debut cameo in Kashima that delivered one goal and two assists to turn a likely draw into a 4-1 rout. The 24-year-old has added crucial goals in two consecutive victories since.


The Gamba scouts have got lucky. While their work in recruiting Rafinha, clearly a closer fit to the team’s playing style than Adriano, must be highly commended, nobody could have expected the latest Brazilian number nine to settle so quickly; had he not done so, the failings of the past would have remained horribly exposed. Still enormously dependent on the old guard core of 30-somethings, Gamba have been crying out for rejuvenation with another quality midfielder and proper centre-back for at least two seasons. The ugly transition from version 2.0 to 3.0 last month highlighted how, even with a supposedly deep squad, the absence of one key player can be enough to derail everything. If there really is something wrong with Yasuhito Endo, or if Rafinha’s purple patch isn’t permanent, then it is easy to envisage another quick decline.


Gamba have already scored 46 goals – ten more than the next most prolific side, Kashiwa – but a tally of 35 conceded is worse than everyone bar Kofu and eight-points-and-counting Avispa Fukuoka. With both central defenders effectively contributing to both columns, the total sum of this year’s four phases has been simultaneously entertaining, exasperating, and nostalgically reminiscent of the 2005 side that ended with a for-against record of 82-58. Of course, Gamba somehow managed to win the league that year, but it surely couldn’t happen again. Surely.


6) And this, above all else, is why

Before the season kicked off, I suggested that continental commitments would be the biggest barrier to Nagoya Grampus retaining their title. Dragan Stojković promptly witnessed his charges collect just six points from as many league games while the ACL group stage was negotiated – a run that included embarrassing defeats at Urawa Reds (3-0) and Kofu (3-1). The side that had romped to J. League glory with three games to spare in 2010 were immediately ten points off the pace and languishing in the bottom half of the nascent table.


Then came Asian elimination at the hands of Suwon Samsung Bluewings in the round of 16. Now, all of a sudden, Grampus are unbeaten in 14 matches; winning the last six on the bounce. They have closed to within two points of Kashiwa and still enjoy the luxury of a game in hand. The squad is, if anything, slightly stronger than last year’s and, now that Danilson appears to be staying, looks set to avoid disruption through the European transfer window.


You know it, and I know it. Nagoya will be champions again this season, and probably by a margin of reasonable comfort.


This column will return after the Japanese O-Bon holiday.

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