5 Mar 2010(Fri)

History has shown that it is a fool’s game to try and forecast the outcome of a league that routinely maintains half a dozen or more title challengers until the very last weeks of the season, but then again, that’s never stopped anybody before. With four Japanese representatives in the ACL again, an interesting set of new arrivals from J2, and a two-month break in mid-season for the World Cup, the 2010 J1 season is if anything looking more unpredictable than ever.

 

A poll of 34 pundits for a Japanese football magazine had Kashima Antlers coming out on top again, and as I discovered last year, it is never safe to back against the club that has now won three league titles in a row. That said, there is a sense that the current side may be coming to the end of an era. The honours were secured last year thanks largely to an explosive first half of the season before the team’s weaknesses were brutally exposed in a run of five straight league defeats in autumn. There have been few changes in close season, and with several of the first eleven now past their 30th birthdays, a first ever AFC Champions League (ACL) title would probably be the larger carrot if they were forced to prioritise.

 

Their opponents in last weekend’s Fuji Xerox Super Cup, Gamba Osaka, have set an identical goal of a domestic and continental double, but unfortunately for them, this is not where the similarities with Kashima end. Last season was certainly a story of two halves – sublime in Asia but terrible at home until summer, before a valiant return to J. League title race contention following their ACL elimination in the last 16. The aging midfield responded superbly to the criticism they received midway through the year, but while there are still young players coming through, it is hard to see a reason that Gamba should cope with an assault on two fronts any better than they did last term. A pre-season injury crisis and the resultant lack of opportunity for Akira Nishino to try out his new strikers hardly help matters.

 

So, who else? My tips for the top twelve months ago, Nagoya Grampus, ultimately ended up proving better than anybody how hard it can be to combine domestic and Asian competition, sinking down to ninth in J1 as their first ACL campaign saw them reach the semi-finals. Dragan Stojković’s side will, however, undoubtedly benefit from this experience and – crucially – the fact that they are now free to concentrate on J. League matters in 2010. Young defender Maya Yoshida may have departed for VVV Venlo of Holland, but the signings of Japanese internationals Marcus Tulio Tanaka (from Urawa Reds) and Mu Kanazaki (from relegated Oita Trinita) both represent real coups. Previously goal-shy Australian forward Joshua Kennedy proved a shrewd acquisition last summer as a replacement for the Qatar-bound Davi, and his goals could help Grampus make a real push at the title this year.

 

I can’t shake the feeling, however, that 2010 just has to be the year that Kawasaki Frontale finally banish their trophy jinx. Going so near and yet so far in four different competitions last season (and playing 52 games along the way – more than any other J1 side bar Nagoya) was a sickener, but the players will have grown from their experience and should be doubly determined never to taste such heartbreak again. Well-travelled Japan midfielder Junichi Inamoto looks an intelligent addition to an already strong and well-balanced squad, and while losing manager Takashi Sekizuka was a blow, his successor, Tsutomu Takahashi, has been with the club for many years and led them to second place in J1 as caretaker boss in 2008. Even a ‘group of death’ draw and an opening day defeat in the ACL could serve as a blessing in disguise – making it through would be a boost to confidence, while early elimination only frees them up to focus on the league.

 

As for the best of the rest, Shimizu S-Pulse could have won the title last year but for a late collapse, and the arrival of former Feyenoord and VfL Bochum midfielder Shinji Ono will help their push for an ACL spot at least. Hot on their heels will be FC Tokyo, who could be in genuine contention for the first time if their young strikers Sota Hirayama and Ricardinho can find form. Sanfrecce Hiroshima possibly overachieved in finishing an excellent fourth on their return to the top flight last year, and even the club itself does not appear to be anticipating a repeat in light of the added challenge of the ACL and the departure of midfielder Yosuke Kashiwagi to Urawa Reds – who, meanwhile, still have many unresolved issues despite a number of new arrivals.

 

Vegalta Sendai and Cerezo Osaka were both highly impressive in J2 last term, and neither ought to be heading straight back down to whence they came as long as their winter signings help them off to a good start (Cerezo in particular have fed well from the corpse of Oita Trinita, but will want to get points quickly in case star man Shinji Kagawa leaves for Europe after the World Cup). Shonan Bellmare, however, still have a squad that looks better suited to the second division and are thus favourites for the drop.

 

One also fears for Montedio Yamagata’s second season in J1, after they started so well last year but ended up needing to win a couple of six-pointers late on to survive, having seemingly being found out come summer. The final relegation place is probably the hardest to decide – I’ve gone for Kyoto Sanga, but Vissel Kobe should watch their backs too as neither of these two Kansai rivals inspire a great deal of confidence ahead of the new campaign. Omiya Ardija are a popular relegation choice for many, but their transfer activity looks positive (not least the arrival of former Oita defender Yuki Fukaya) and they are well used to defying the critics by now.

 

2010 J1 table prediction

1. Kawasaki Frontale

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2. Nagoya Grampus

3. Kashima Antlers

4. Shimizu S-Pulse

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5. Gamba Osaka

6. FC Tokyo

7. Urawa Reds

8. Yokohama F Marinos

9. Sanfrecce Hiroshima

10. Jubilo Iwata

11. Albirex Niigata

12. Cerezo Osaka

13. Vegalta Sendai

14. Omiya Ardija

15. Vissel Kobe

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16. Kyoto Sanga

17. Montedio Yamagata

18. Shonan Bellmare

 

(Click here to see how the predictions I made in March 2009 matched up – or didn’t, as the case may be – with last year’s final standings.)