8 Jul 2009(Wed)

As the 2009 J. League season reaches its halfway point this week, four key questions:

 

(1) Can anybody stop Kashima?

Before last week’s tricky away matches in Nagoya and Kawasaki, I was looking back four years for a historical precedent to suggest that early-season dominance from Kashima Antlers may not necessarily be decisive. Now that they have come through this double-header without even a dent made to their eight-point lead, a collapse of 2005 proportions may just be the only thing that could prevent Oswaldo de Oliveira’s side from retaining their J1 title once again. After the narrow win at hapless Oita Trinita, a 3-0 thrashing of Grampus was the perfect way to banish all memories of their misery in the ACL, but to spend an hour with ten men and still come from behind to steal a draw at Frontale – their best-placed challengers – was a demonstration of championship quality and resilience. If the confidence is back already, then losing to FC Seoul may indeed be a blessing in disguise – Kashima are free to concentrate on domestic success without the punishing international schedule that has derailed Urawa Reds and Gamba Osaka in the past.

 

(2) Do Albirex Niigata have the staying power?

When early goals from Kisho Yano and Pedro Junior gave Albirex a 2-1 win over Kashima back on the second weekend of the season, the shock scoreline appeared an aberration that spoke more for the Antlers’ worries than it did for the hopes of Jun Suzuki’s unfancied eleven. Fast forward four months, and the famously passionate fans in Niigata have barely stopped celebrating, with their team rarely out of the top three and currently back up to second on goal difference ahead of Kawasaki. Four straight defeats in the Nabisco Cup during the recent international break had some wondering if the bubble hadn’t burst, but since the resumption of league action, Albirex have gone on to enjoy wins over Gamba, Nagoya, and now a 4-0 thrashing of Kashiwa Reysol. Closing the gap to Kashima may be too big an ask, but having finished down in 13th last year, the challenge now is to remain in the chasing pack and battle for ACL qualification. The decision of Japan striker Yano to stay will be a major boost to their chances.

 

(3) Have Montedio Yamagata run out of steam already?

Eight days before Albirex stole the headlines on March 15, it was little Montedio Yamagata who were the toast of the nation. On the opening day of their first ever J1 campaign, four goals in the final quarter of an hour helped them complete an incredible 6-2 romp away to Jubilo Iwata. The Tohoku side went on to register 15 points in their first nine games, remaining in the top five until May and earning manager Shinji Kobayashi the kind of praise he had not enjoyed since taking Cerezo Osaka to the brink of J1 glory in 2005. In the seven league matches since, however, they have contrived to draw one and lose six; a run that has taken them all the way down to sixteenth position and facing an immediate return to whence they came. Kobayashi has experienced a sudden fall from grace before – Cerezo were dismally relegated a year after their title challenge – but his chances of turning things around with Montedio are handicapped by limited resources in comparison to the more established teams battling for survival around them. The next two games – away to 13th-placed Yokohama F Marinos and a return meeting with Jubilo – could set the tone for their entire summer.

 

(4) Which familiar faces will be returning to J1 next year?

After 25 matches in this year’s J2 campaign, four former top flight sides have broken away from the rest and look set to battle for three tickets to return to former glories. The goalscoring form of Japanese international midfielders Shinji Kagawa and Takashi Inui has won Cerezo Osaka plenty of plaudits so far this year, but they were overtaken at the top last weekend by Shonan Bellmare, who have spent a decade in the second tier since their golden era of Hidetoshi Nakata and Hong Myung-Bo ended with mass departures in 1998 and relegation a season later. Third-placed Vegalta Sendai were unable to reward their excellent supporters with victory in last year’s relegation/promotion playoff against Jubilo, but just like Ventforet Kofu in fourth, are desperate for a second crack at J1 having still only completed two top flight seasons in their history. An unprecedentedly gruelling 51-game league calendar will make the remainder of the season tricky to predict, however, and the goals of Masashi Oguro make Tokyo Verdy the most likely of ‘the rest’ to pounce should any of the top four start to flag.