3 Mar 2009(Tue)

(Continues from previous article)

 

At the top end of the J1 table, two titles in a row for Kashima Antlers and a 3-0 win over Gamba Osaka in Saturday’s Fuji Xerox Super Cup suggest that Oswaldo de Oliveira’s side remain the team to beat, and had this been three or four years ago, I would certainly have made them favourites to clinch an unprecedented third consecutive J League crown. However, increasing emphasis and Japanese prominence in the AFC Champions League have seen Kashima’s successes over the last couple of years somewhat overshadowed – not to mention their right to compete in two FIFA Club World Cups being taken away – by the international glory of Urawa Reds and Gamba. After seeing the latter defeat Adelaide United three times to set up a meeting with Manchester United last year, Kashima’s regret at not having overcome the Australians in the last eight of the ACL would have only grown deeper, and the Antlers could be forgiven for making continental progress the top priority this year.

 

Who, then, is best placed to supplant them as champions? Jeremy Walker writes this week about the difficulty of selecting a dark horse for the 2009 title, but the beauty of this year’s J1 as the opening day approaches is that it would not be a shock to see any of about six teams end up on top of the pile. All of this makes it very difficult to see how a side like Vissel Kobe really can break through and challenge for the ACL positions, despite significant investment from their wealthy owners. In a year of little transfer activity overall, Kobe are unusual in that their best XI this season could feature as many as four new faces, and this certainly gives them a better chance of moving up the league than, say, Yokohama F Marinos. However, they will still likely be reliant on the failure of teams like Oita Trinita, FC Tokyo, and Shimizu S-Pulse to prove that last term’s performances were no overachievement, and the Vissel fans and owners will have to be patient enough to realise that even a top eight finish would still mean progress.

 

Despite the continental competition’s expansion this year, Urawa will have no ACL distractions for the first time since they won the league in 2006, freeing them for a targeted assault on title glory while as many as four rivals contend with additional fixtures and international travel. It is questionable, however, just to what extent the problems that dogged the team last season have actually been solved, and former SC Freiburg coach Volker Finke may be excused a transitional year in which to restore the Reds’ team harmony and winning mentality, with a top three finish a reasonable first target. Gamba, meanwhile, will also be giving top priority to the league, after eighth position last year more accurately reflected the troubles suffered throughout a season memorable ultimately for their cup successes at home and abroad. In four signings of proven quality, Akira Nishino has filled holes in terms of defence, attack, and overall squad depth, but any points dropped while the new-look team is still gelling could be crucial come December.

 

Nagoya Grampus and Kawasaki Frontale may not have the ACL experience of Kashima or Gamba – with Frontale’s elimination in the 2007 quarter-finals being the only time that either has taken part before – and it therefore remains to be seen how two of last year’s major risers can deal with the pressures of competing on two fronts. Both, though, have largely retained the strong squads that did so well last season, and a league title would represent the first and biggest step towards legitimacy for two teams whose rolls of honour to date consist only of a pair of J2 titles for Kawasaki and two Emperor’s Cups in the 1990s for Nagoya. Replacing Shimizu-bound forward Frode Johnsen with the exciting Brazilian Davi could just give Grampus the cutting edge necessary to go all the way this year.

 

2009 J1 table prediction

1. Nagoya Grampus

2. Kawasaki Frontale

3. Gamba Osaka

4. Kashima Antlers

5. Urawa Reds

6. Oita Trinita

7. FC Tokyo

8. Vissel Kobe

9. Shimizu S-Pulse

10. JEF United Chiba

11. Yokohama F Marinos

12. Kashiwa Reysol

13. Sanfrecce Hiroshima

14. Omiya Ardija

15. Albirex Niigata

16. Kyoto Sanga

17. Jubilo Iwata

18. Montedio Yamagata