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Six sides of the championship dice

22 Nov 2008(Sat)

Titles are often virtually decided when there are three games to go in one of the major European leagues, and even if not, there are rarely more than two teams still in contention by this point. By contrast, as the 2008 J1 season enters its 32nd weekend, six teams still have realistic hopes of claiming the championship, with mathematical possibilities even stretching down as far as Shimizu S-Pulse in ninth. Contrary to popular logic when the old two-stage system was ditched at the beginning of 2004, competition in the J League is seemingly becoming more intense with each passing year.


All eyes this weekend will undoubtedly be on the match between Oita Trinita and Kashima Antlers. Currently in fourth, Oita briefly topped the table on matchday 26 after going 13 league games unbeaten, but, despite a first ever piece of silverware in the Nabisco Cup, have only claimed four points from five matches since then, and suffered an embarrassing Emperor’s Cup exit to J2 side Sagan Tosu. Nevertheless, they remain just two points off the top, and even if Trinita do not win the title themselves, their home matches with Kashima and (on the final day) with Nagoya Grampus will surely go a long way towards determining who will. Aside from the Tosu game, Oita are unbeaten at the Kyushu Oil Dome since losing to Gamba Osaka on 2 April.


Leaders Kashima remain very much in the driving seat, and should they come through their match with Oita unscathed, a home game with 16th-placed Jubilo Iwata and a trip to hapless Consadole Sapporo will likely pose few problems. However, Kashima have lost to FC Tokyo and drawn 0-0 with Albirex Niigata in recent weeks, while going down 4-3 in the last minute of extra time in last week’s Emperor’s Cup 5th round match with Shimizu cannot have been enjoyable. Further misfortune on Sunday could yet sow doubts in the minds of the players.


Top for much of the season, Nagoya have simply forgotten how to win of late. Despite having comfortably made it through to the last eight of the Emperor’s Cup, their league form has been woeful, with a record of no wins, four draws, and two losses since 23 September. The performances of striker Frode Johnsen – who this week announced he will be leaving Grampus at the end of the season – have mirrored that of his team, with his brace against Omiya Ardija in the cup coming off the back of nine league games in which he only found the net once. Nagoya should at least be able to beat Sapporo in their penultimate fixture whatever happens, but if they cannot convert their cup form into goals in the league, away trips to Kyoto Sanga and to Oita will be an uphill struggle.


Urawa Reds followed their ACL disappointment with a penalty shoot-out exit at the hands of Yokohama F Marinos in the Emperor’s Cup last week, but their patchy form has at least meant that they can concentrate solely on the league, and they will surely be thinking of nothing less than three points from their home matches with Shimizu and, in an opportunity for quick revenge, with Yokohama. However, the away trip to Gamba Osaka in between could be a stumbling block. With little chance in the league, Gamba’s focus will now shift towards the Emperor’s and Club World Cups, but in what will be their final home game of the season, they may just be keen to ensure that their fierce rivals end the campaign empty-handed.


Meanwhile, Kawasaki Frontale may be currently down in fifth, but with the best prospects of any of the top six of claiming maximum points from their last three games, a late title surge may not be beyond them. Sandwiched between a home game with Gamba on Sunday and a trip to relegation-threatened Tokyo Verdy on the final day, Frontale’s biggest hurdle will probably come in the form of Vissel Kobe, who have won five on the bounce in the league. FC Tokyo are currently level with Kawasaki on 51 points, but with a trip to Kobe to make themselves this Sunday, their subsequent games against Albirex Niigata and JEF United Chiba will likely affect the bottom of the table more than they will the top.


Aware as I am that the competitive nature of this league is only likely to prove me entirely wrong, my predictions for the rest of the season are given below.


Kashima Antlers (currently 1st, 54 points, goal difference +23)

Game 32: Oita (a) – draw 0-0

Game 33: Iwata (h) – win 1-0

Game 34: Sapporo (a) – win 3-0


Urawa Reds (2nd, 53 points, GD +15)

Game 32: Shimizu (h) – win 1-0

Game 33: G Osaka (a) – lose 0-1

Game 34: Yokohama FM (h) – win 1-0


Nagoya Grampus (3rd, 52 points, GD +10)

Game 32: Kyoto (a) – draw 1-1

Game 33: Sapporo (h) – win 3-0

Game 34: Oita (a) – lose 0-1


Oita Trinita (4th, 52 points, GD +8)

Game 32: Kashima (h) – draw 0-0

Game 33: Kashiwa (a) – draw 1-1

Game 34: Nagoya (h) – win 1-0


Kawasaki Frontale (5th, 51 points, GD +13)

Game 32: G Osaka (h) – win 2-1

Game 33: Kobe (h) – draw 1-1

Game 34: Tokyo V (a) – win 2-0


FC Tokyo (6th, 51 points, GD +5)

Game 32: Kobe (a) – lose 1-2

Game 33: Niigata (h) – win 1-0

Game 34: Chiba (a) – draw 1-1


Final table (top six)

(1) Kashima – 61 points, GD +27

(2) Urawa – 59 points, GD +16

(3) Kawasaki – 58 points, GD +16

(4) Oita – 57 points, GD +9

(5) Nagoya – 56 points, GD +12

(6) FC Tokyo – 55 points, GD +5

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