17 Jul 2008(Thu)

While casually looking through the British sports news on the internet the other day, my eye was attracted to an advert from one of the bookmakers. The advert enabled you to select the champion team for each of the top four English divisions, and calculated your potential winnings were you to proceed to put an accumulator bet on the same outcomes. When I entered my predictions, I was greeted with the attractive proposition that a ten-pound bet could ultimately leave me £10,806 better off. Although I did somehow manage to resist the temptation to part with my cash, my fascination with numbers led me to play around a little with other combinations, and this in turn led me to a somewhat startling discovery. When I looked at some of the lower-ranked sides, I noticed that two of the teams promoted to the Premier League from the second-tier Championship, Hull City and Stoke City, have been given title odds – just for a single bet – of 7,500-1.

 

Could it really be that unlikely in a league of just 20 teams? When Wigan Athletic goalkeeper Chris Kirkland was eleven, his father bet that he would represent England at senior level by the age of 30, and the odds he was offered then were only 100-1. Even in non-footballing contexts, bookmakers usually tend to quote odds of around 1,000-1 for things like Elvis Presley being found alive. This suggests that a Premier League title victory for Stoke or Hull is currently considered to be seven-and-a-half times less likely than events generally regarded as impossible. Even Tottenham Hotspur, rated as fifth favourites by the bookies, have longer title odds – at 66-1 – than the longest of any of the teams in the next three divisions.

 

However, a look at reality would suggest that the bookmakers are not far wrong. Even before the new season starts, it would appear to be virtually guaranteed that the same four teams as last year will take the Champions League positions. Exactly thirty years ago, a Nottingham Forest side led by the great Brian Clough won the First Division title a year after promotion, while Leeds United became champions just two years after coming up from the Second Division in 1989/90. Even the Premier League title of Blackburn Rovers, who were relatively wealthy by 1994/95 standards, came just three years after promotion to the top tier, but the time where such feats may be repeated has now passed us by. It goes without saying that money is the most major cause here, but such a status quo cannot be preferable for any English football supporter – even fans of the big four.

 

In stark contrast, however, the level of competition in the J League this year has risen to almost unbelievable levels. The completion of tonight’s matches (Thursday) will mark the end of the first half of the season, but we are still yet to see an elite group break away at the top, and just thirteen points separate Kashima Antlers in first place with Yokohama F Marinos in 16th, the relegation play-off spot. The Thursday scheduling of Kawasaki Frontale’s 17th league game saw the side fall to 11th in the table after Wednesday’s matches, and while they could rise to as high as fifth with a win over Shimizu S-Pulse at Todoroki, the team could fall still further to 14th if they lose. The possibility of such a swing in just one day brings heightened pressure to the players, and much tension to their supporters, but it undeniably makes for a great spectacle to enjoy.

 

Upon returning to the J League stadia after having watched the world-class football on display in an excellent European Championships last month, a number of supporters commented ruefully on how far Japanese football remains from these standards. With injury problems and personnel changes (including a manager, in the case of Urawa), Kashima Antlers, Urawa Reds, and Gamba Osaka have each had spells this year where they almost could not buy a win, and it is fair to say that there has not been a single consistently excellent side at all this year. However, all three of the Japanese representatives will line up in the quarter finals of the Asian Champions League, and the fact that many other sides in Japan are able to compete domestically on a similar pegging to such continental performers would, conversely, point to the real progress that has actually been made throughout Japanese football.

 

Whatever may be said about the Premier League, its high standard of entertaining, attacking play means that it is unlikely to lose its popularity any time soon, but with the J League yet to be sullied by cash and continuing to see higher standards and greater competition than ever before, Japanese supporters can consider themselves quite fortunate. The appeal of this league lies in its unpredictability, and I look forward to witnessing exciting battles both at the top and bottom of the pile as we head into the second half of the campaign.

 

(By the way, a ten-pound accumulator bet on Hull City and the biggest respective outsiders in the next three divisions would apparently net me over 6.4 billion pounds if I were successful. While this is certainly tempting, I am sure that the only thing less likely than my winning would be the bookies actually paying me if I did...)