History has shown that it is a fool’s game to try and forecast the
outcome of a league that routinely maintains half a
dozen or more
title challengers until the very last weeks of the season, but then again,
that’s never stopped anybody before. With four Japanese representatives in the
ACL again, an interesting set of new arrivals from J2, and a two-month break in
mid-season for the World Cup, the 2010 J1 season is if anything looking more
unpredictable than ever.
A poll
of 34 pundits for a Japanese football magazine had Kashima
Antlers coming out on top again, and as I discovered last year,
it is never safe to back against the club that has now won three league titles
in a row. That said, there is a sense that the current side may be coming to
the end of an era. The honours were secured last year thanks largely to an explosive
first half of the season before the team’s weaknesses were brutally exposed
in a run of five
straight league defeats in autumn. There have been few changes in close
season, and with several of the first eleven now past their 30th birthdays, a
first ever AFC
Champions League (ACL) title would probably be the larger carrot if they
were forced to prioritise.
Their opponents in last weekend’s
Fuji Xerox Super Cup, Gamba Osaka, have set an identical goal of a domestic
and continental double, but unfortunately for them, this is not where the
similarities with Kashima end. Last season was certainly a story of two halves –
sublime in Asia but terrible
at home until summer, before a valiant return to J. League title race
contention following their ACL elimination in the
last 16. The aging midfield responded superbly to the
criticism they received midway through the year, but while there are still young
players coming through, it is hard to see a reason that Gamba should cope
with an assault on two fronts any better than they did last term. A pre-season
injury crisis and the resultant lack of opportunity for Akira Nishino to try
out his
new strikers hardly help matters.
So, who else? My tips for the top twelve months ago, Nagoya Grampus, ultimately
ended up proving better than anybody how hard it can be to combine domestic and
Asian competition, sinking down to ninth in J1 as their first ACL campaign saw
them reach
the semi-finals. Dragan Stojković’s side will, however, undoubtedly benefit
from this experience and – crucially – the fact that they are now free to
concentrate on J. League matters in 2010. Young defender Maya Yoshida may have
departed for VVV Venlo of Holland, but the signings of Japanese internationals
Marcus Tulio Tanaka (from Urawa Reds) and Mu Kanazaki (from relegated Oita
Trinita) both represent real coups. Previously goal-shy Australian forward
Joshua Kennedy proved a shrewd acquisition last summer as a replacement for the
Qatar-bound Davi, and his goals could help Grampus make a real push at the
title this year.
I can’t shake the feeling, however, that 2010 just has to be the year
that Kawasaki Frontale finally banish their trophy jinx. Going so
near and yet so far in four different competitions last season (and playing
52 games along the way – more than any other J1 side bar Nagoya) was a
sickener, but the players will have grown from their experience and should be
doubly determined never to taste
such heartbreak again. Well-travelled Japan midfielder Junichi
Inamoto looks an intelligent addition to an already strong and
well-balanced squad, and while losing manager Takashi Sekizuka was a blow, his
successor, Tsutomu Takahashi, has been with the club for many years and led
them to second place in J1 as caretaker boss in 2008. Even a ‘group of
death’ draw and an opening day
defeat in the ACL could serve as a blessing in disguise – making it through
would be a boost to confidence, while early elimination only frees them up to
focus on the league.
As for the best of the rest, Shimizu S-Pulse could have won
the title last year but for a late collapse,
and the arrival of former Feyenoord and VfL Bochum midfielder Shinji Ono will
help their push for an ACL spot at least. Hot on their heels will be FC Tokyo,
who could be in genuine contention for the first time if their young strikers Sota Hirayama
and Ricardinho can find form. Sanfrecce Hiroshima possibly overachieved in
finishing an excellent fourth on their return to the top flight last year, and
even the club itself does not appear to be anticipating a repeat in light of
the added challenge of the ACL and the departure of midfielder Yosuke Kashiwagi
to Urawa Reds – who, meanwhile, still have many unresolved issues despite a
number of new arrivals.
Vegalta Sendai and Cerezo Osaka were both highly impressive in J2 last term,
and neither ought to be heading straight back down to whence they came as long
as their winter signings help them off to a good start (Cerezo in particular
have fed well from the corpse of Oita Trinita, but will want to get points
quickly in case star man Shinji Kagawa leaves for Europe after the World Cup).
Shonan Bellmare, however, still have a squad that looks better suited to the
second division and are thus favourites for the drop.
One also fears for Montedio Yamagata’s second season in J1, after they started so
well last year but ended up needing to win a couple of six-pointers late on
to survive, having seemingly
being found out come summer. The final relegation place is probably the
hardest to decide – I’ve gone for Kyoto Sanga, but Vissel Kobe should watch
their backs too as neither of these two Kansai rivals inspire a great deal of
confidence ahead of the new campaign. Omiya Ardija are a popular relegation
choice for many, but their transfer activity looks positive (not least the
arrival of former Oita defender Yuki Fukaya)
and they are well used to defying the critics by now.
2010 J1 table prediction
1. Kawasaki Frontale
--------
2. Nagoya Grampus
3. Kashima Antlers
4. Shimizu S-Pulse
--------
5. Gamba Osaka
6. FC Tokyo
7. Urawa Reds
8. Yokohama F Marinos
9. Sanfrecce Hiroshima
10. Jubilo Iwata
11. Albirex Niigata
12. Cerezo Osaka
13. Vegalta Sendai
14. Omiya Ardija
15. Vissel Kobe
--------
16. Kyoto Sanga
17. Montedio Yamagata
18. Shonan Bellmare
(Click
here to see how the predictions I made in March 2009 matched up – or didn’t,
as the case may be – with last year’s final standings.)


